This chart which was prepared many years ago by a Monk, shows when good and bad times have occurred and when they will occur again. Some outstanding dates were 1870 - the Franco-Prussian War - dear bread and scarcity of money in 1870, the Baring Crisis 1888-1890, 40 failures on the London Stock Exchange in 1888 to 1890, the American crisis of 1893, the South African War, 1899-1903, the Russo-Japanese War of 1904. 1915 speaks for itself, and so do 1931 and 1942. Recent recessions in the U.S. occurred in 1973-75, 1981-82, 1990-91 and 2000-2. The year 1999 was the peak of the high-tech boom and is shown at the top of the chart with the dismal down-turn indicated to last for 6 years to 2005. The current recessionary/deflationary leg may last till 2012!
This chart is a useful form of guidance for business transactions. Certainly, there is a case for giving it consideration. But in all transactions in commodities and securities there are individual factors which have to be taken into consideration. Sometimes those individual factors may go against the general trend.
Years in which panics have occurred and will occur again: Their cycles are 16, 18 and 20 years.
Years of good times, high prices and the time to sell stocks and values of all kinds: Their cycles are 8, 9 and 10 years
Years of hard times, low prices, and a good time to buy stocks and goods and hold until the boom reaches the years of good times: Their cycles are 7, 11 and 9 years.